Venezuela’s July 28th, 2024 Election: Ramifications for Aruba?

A look down to the South of Us

As I write my next column, Venezuela’s voting stations are open. Today, Venezuela will decide if the incumbent President Maduro will remain in power or if the electorate will choose a new path by voting for Edmundo Gonzalez, the surrogate for Maria Corina Machado. Although other candidates are in the race, the primary contest seems to be between Maduro and Gonzalez. On July 28th, 2024, Venezuela is holding a significant election that has substantial implications for neighboring countries, including Aruba. Understanding the impact of the Venezuela 2024 election on Aruba is crucial for regional stability and economic forecasts.

Venezuela 2024 election consequences for Aruba

Background on Maduro’s Presidency

Nicolás Maduro has been in power since 2013, succeeding Hugo Chávez after his death. Chávez, the charismatic leader of the Bolivarian Revolution, was president from 1999 until he died in 2013. Chávez implemented widespread social reforms funded by Venezuela’s vast oil wealth, gaining significant support people whose income is below the poverty threshold.. However, his policies also led to economic mismanagement and corruption, setting the stage for the current crisis. Maduro’s presidency has been marked by significant economic decline, hyperinflation, and widespread essential goods and services shortages. His administration has faced numerous accusations of human rights abuses, corruption, and electoral fraud. The economy, once buoyed by oil wealth, has deteriorated drastically, causing millions of Venezuelans to flee the country in search of better living conditions.

Who is Edmundo Gonzalez?

Edmundo Gonzalez, representing Maria Corina Machado, starkly contrasts Maduro. Machado, a long-time opposition leader, has been a vocal critic of the Maduro regime. Gonzalez’s candidacy symbolizes hope for many Venezuelans who desire change and the restoration of democracy and economic stability. His platform focuses on economic reforms, combating corruption, and re-establishing international relations.

Who is Maria Corina Machado?

Maria Corina Machado is a prominent Venezuelan opposition leader and former National Assembly member. She has been an outspoken critic of both Chávez and Maduro, advocating for democracy, human rights, and economic reforms. Machado co-founded the political movement “Vente Venezuela” emphasizing free-market principles and individual liberties. Her strong stance against the current regime has made her a significant figure in Venezuelan politics, and she continues to inspire many who seek change in the country. To my knowledge, Maria Corina Machado has not visited Aruba. Her influence, however, is felt across the region due to her persistent advocacy for democratic principles and her efforts to unite the opposition against Maduro.

Previous Presidential Hopefuls

Over the years, several opposition candidates have challenged the ruling party but have been unable to effect significant change. Henrique Capriles, a former governor, ran against Maduro in 2013 and 2018 but lost amid allegations of electoral fraud. Leopoldo López, another prominent opposition leader, has been imprisoned and exiled for his efforts against the Maduro regime.

Two presidents

Juan Guaidó, a prominent Venezuelan opposition leader, played a significant role in the Venezuelan political crisis. As the President of the National Assembly, he declared himself interim President of Venezuela in January 2019, challenging Nicolás Maduro’s presidency. Numerous countries, including the United States and many European and Latin American nations recognized Guaidó’s claim. Despite his efforts and international support, he was unable to dislodge Maduro from power. In 2023, the opposition dissolved his interim government, and Guaidó later fled to the United States, continuing his political activities in exile. These leaders, despite their efforts and popular support, faced severe repression and obstacles that hindered their campaigns and impact.

Concerns About Election Violence

There are concerns about potential violence during election day and once the results are announced. Social media has been abuzz with fears of a possible bloodbath. I sincerely hope that this will not be the case. Some of my friends in the local media were advised not to pursue their plans to send a crew to Venezuela to cover the election due to safety concerns.f The US Embassy in Bogota has issued a security alert for the election, but the atmosphere is certainly tense.

The Impact on Aruba

The outcome of this election holds significant implications for Aruba. Given Aruba’s proximity to Venezuela, the island feels the ripple effects of its neighbor’s political and economic turbulence. Aruba has witnessed a heavy influx of Venezuelans, some seeking refuge from the dire economic conditions and others looking to invest and start anew. Media reports have shown that Venezuelan authorities recently closed the airspace between Venezuela and Panama to prevent former presidents and vice presidents of the region from visiting Venezuela this weekend as observers or supporters. The relationship between Venezuela and Aruba is historically tied to the oil industry. In the past, Venezuela’s oil wealth fueled a robust economic exchange, with Venezuelans flocking to Aruba for tourism, shopping, and entertainment. However, the economic collapse under Maduro has led to a stark division between the wealthy and the impoverished in Venezuela, altering the nature of this exchange.

Challenges for Aruba

Aruba faces several challenges due to the situation in Venezuela. The continuous flow of refugees strains the island’s limited resources and infrastructure. The Aruban government has maintained closed airspace with Venezuela to curb this influx, recognizing that the island cannot accommodate the massive influx of new inhabitants. Many Venezuelans on the island are not politically driven asylum seekers but rather economic migrants. This distinction is crucial for understanding the motivations behind their migration and the pressures on Aruba’s social and economic systems.

What Change Could Mean

A change in leadership in Venezuela could herald significant shifts. If Gonzalez wins and manages to implement his reforms, Venezuela might see an improvement in its economy and a reduction in the number of people fleeing the country. This change could also reopen avenues for economic and social exchange between Aruba and Venezuela, potentially revitalizing the tourism and investment sectors that once thrived on the island. However, if Maduro stays in power, Aruba could also have some potential benefits. Even under Maduro, stability in Venezuela could reduce the number of refugees fleeing to Aruba. Additionally, if diplomatic relations improve, trade between the two countries could resume, bringing economic benefits to both nations. However, these benefits are contingent on Maduro’s ability to stabilize Venezuela’s economy and improve living conditions, which remains uncertain. According to the BBC, the results of Venezuela’s election are expected to bring significant changes to the region.

Conclusion

As we await the outcome of Venezuela’s election, it’s essential to consider the broader implications for our region. I don’t know when the results will be announced, and chances are that by the time this column is out, we may have a good idea of which path Venezuela will be heading. The election’s result will not only shape Venezuela’s future but also have a profound impact on Aruba. Whether Maduro remains in power or Gonzalez ushers in a new era, Aruba must navigate these changes with resilience and adaptability.

Thank you for reading. This is Lincoln Gomez saying, “I’ll see you next week”. Stay informed on regional developments. Visit www.lincolngomez.com for more insights. You will also find my blogs, podcasts, and books.